(November 2012) Advanced economies could learn from Asia’s experience to develop more resilient, sounder economies, says IMF chief Christine Lagarde, at the beginning of a week-long visit to Southeast Asia.
(November 2012) Timothy Geithner, US Treasury secretary, says that higher tax rates for some Americans are a central part of the White House's deficit-reduction proposal, in an interview with The Wall Street Journal's David Wessel at the CEO Council in Washington DC.
(November 2012) The economic outlook for the Middle East and North Africa region is mixed. Most of the region’s oil-exporting countries are growing at healthy rates while the oil importers face subdued economic prospects.
(November 2012) Xinhua, China's official news agency, reports Wednesday that an amendment to the Constitution of the Communist Party of China (CPC) was approved making the 'Scientific Outlook on Development' as part of the Party's guide for action, according to a resolution of the 18th CPC National Congress. "Unanimously agreed on by the delegates to the congress, the amendment juxtaposes the 'Scientific Outlook on Development' along with Marxism-Leninism, Mao Zedong Thought, Deng Xiaoping Theory and the important thought of Three Represents." The National Congress has concluded its current session and in coming days, the new leaders of China will be announced at a time of tentative signs of an economic rebound from a mid-summer swoon. However, the debate on China's transition to a more consumer oriented economy will continue. Last month the National Bureau of Statistics reported that in the first three quarters of 2012, consumption (includes government consumption as well as household consumption) contributed over half (55%) of China's growth, exceeding the contribution from investment. If that pattern continues, China's growth this year will not be investment-led (let alone export-led), but consumption-led.
(November 2012) On the basis of 2005 purchasing power parities (PPPs), China's economy is projected to surpass the Eurozone in 2012 and the United States by 2016, to become the largest economy in the world, and India is about now surpassing Japan and is expected to surpass the Eurozone in about 20 years. Per capita GDP (gross domestic product) or income is a different story and and as regard timing, John Kenneth Galbraith, the late American economist, once said: "The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable."
(November 2012) Worldwide business confidence has fallen to its lowest since the global economy pulled out of the recession of 2008-09. The Markit Global Business Outlook Survey of 11,000 companies worldwide shows that optimism dropped in October to its lowest since global data were first available in October 2009.
(November 2012) In fiscal year 2012 (end September 30), the US federal budget deficit surpassed $1tn for the fourth year in a row. If Congress maintained current policies by preventing most of the tax increases and spending cuts that are scheduled to occur in January 2013, deficits would total almost $10tn over the next decade. Federal debt held by the public would increase from nearly 73% of gross domestic product (GDP) at the end of 2012 to 90% of GDP 10 years from now. However, in the words of 'The San Francisco Chronicle' "coming in less than two months is the one-two punch of the 'fiscal cliff,' a financial suicide pact devised to force answers on taxes and the budget. In the heat of the presidential sweepstakes, Democrats and Republicans avoided a deal over extending George W. Bush-era tax cuts that amount to an average of $3,500 per family. The other half left unsolved is $800bn in cuts to defense and domestic programs."
(November 2012) Japan appears to have entered a recession for the first time in four years, as a key indicator of the current state of the economy fell for a sixth consecutive month, the government said this week. Trade with China has plunges since the resumption of tensions related to a territorial dispute about a group of small islands in the East China Sea. Meanwhile, Japan's old giant electronics companies are badly stumbling.
(November 2012) Spain’s prime minister said on Tuesday that economic growth will not return until 2014. However, the European Commission is more pessimistic about growth and budget targets. Mariano Rajoy said in a radio interview that Spain’s economy will continue to shrink in 2013 but that it should return to growth in 2014.
(November 2012) The downturn in the global manufacturing sector moderated in October 2012. The JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) - - a composite index produced by JPMorgan and Markit in association with ISM (US Institute for Supply Management) and IFPSM (International Federation of Purchasing and Supply Management) - - rose for the second month running to reach 49.2, its highest reading during the current five-month period of contraction.